Dated, falsifiable calls with confidence levels, graded in public when they resolve. No entry is edited after logging. Misses get graded louder than hits. Anyone can describe the present; this page is how we earn the name.
Grading at resolution: HIT MISS PARTIAL · Confidence = the probability we logged that the call is right. Annual public grading each August.
The call: Wichita County's 2024 transfer-receipts share of personal income would be ≥25.5% and at least 8 points above the U.S. share in the next BEA release.
The result: BEA's CAINC4 release (Feb 2026 vintage) settled it: Wichita County 2024 = 26.9%, U.S. = 18.3%, gap +8.6 points. Bonus: BEA revised 2022 upward to 27.4% — the situation was slightly more pronounced than our draft stated, and the issue was refreshed to the new vintage. Source: BEA CAINC4, lines 10 & 47.
The call: total permanent operational data-center employment across the announced Wichita Falls-area projects (Skybox PowerCampus, Calvano, Google/Archer, DataNovaX) will be under 600 FTE at end of 2028, despite $10B+ in announced capital.
Settles it: BLS QCEW (NAICS 518, Wichita/Archer counties) plus company statements. If it misses high: the data centers are a bigger payroll anchor than the national record suggests — good news, and worth a loud correction.
The call: the Census vintage-2027 estimate for the Wichita Falls MSA lands between 147,600 and 152,100 (±1.5% of the 149,869 baseline) — the construction wave will not visibly bend the population curve by then.
Settles it: Census population estimates, CBSA file, vintage 2027.
The call: WFISD's 2026-27 accountability rating will be C or better — the D→C climb holds.
Settles it: TEA A-F ratings release, August 2027. Confidence tempered by the STAAR plateau and enrollment/funding pressure.
The call: no construction start — defined as a USACE Section 404 permit issued and a construction contract awarded — by end of 2028.
Settles it: the USACE permit record and city council contract awards. Basis: 404 permitting for new Texas reservoirs historically runs many years; costs already escalated $443M→$550M; TWDB's no-need finding.
Next scheduled entries: a call on the military share's direction after the GDP-by-industry pull, and a call on Sheppard mission changes after the ENJJPT research. The first annual grading runs August 2027, in the newsletter.